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The Terminal Value Review
I explore markets, money, and long-term financial planning through a behavioral and real-world economics lens where incentives matter and human behavior drives outcomes. As an independent CFP®, my goal is to educate, simplify, and occasionally inject a bit of humor along the way. Nothing here is personal advice, and nothing predicts the future. Past performance guarantees nothing. These are simply my perspectives on how the economic world works.
Ai Infrastructure Control and the Economics…
“Control the route, control the business.” – Cornelius Vanderbilt Cornelius Vanderbilt, born on Staten Island, New York, in 1794, was one of America’s most formidable entrepreneurs. Rising from remarkably humble beginnings, Vanderbilt left school at an early age and received no formal collegiate education. Through relentless determination, an uncompromising competitive spirit, and an extraordinary work…
Moral Hazard
“The difference between a politician and a statesman is: a politician thinks of the next election; a statesman thinks of the next generation.” – James Freeman Clarke How political expediency and Fed-induced moral hazard changed stock-market price discovery starting in 08′, and changed risk/reward forever… The late 2000s were unprecedented, particularly from a macroeconomic perspective….
Tech Bubble?
“By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.” – Paul Krugman, Economics Nobel Laureate, 1998 Is this the late 90’s, all over again?… As of this writing, the Mag 7 composed of Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and…
Social Security: a pragmatic historical perspective
“I deplore the opportunistic political maneuvering, cynically designed to play on the fears of many Americans.“ – Ronald Reagan Social Security: a pragmatic historical perspective, current unsustainability, and a politically expedient peace of mind… Social Security was created in response to the Great Depression and as part of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal to provide…
Roth Conversions; A BETR Way – Part 4 of 4
“If the future tax rate is higher than a calculated BETR, a conversion is generally considered financially sound.“ – Vanguard Group In my previous post, Roth Conversions; No Guarantees, Part 3 of 4, we discussed some of the risk factors that could potentially reduce or completely negate the benefit of front-loading taxes via the Roth…
Roth Conversions; No Guarantees – Part 3 of 4
“Uncertainty is the only certainty there is and knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security.” – John Allen Paulos Uncertain outcomes have always existed and always will. We live in a world defined by uncertainty and decision risk, and the goal of sound planning is not to eliminate it, but to…
Roth Conversions; the Economic Hurdle – Part 2 of 4
“The social responsibility of business is to increase its profits.” – Milton Friedman Just about every business has two objectives: first survival, then growth, achieved through the optimal and effective deployment of both current and future resources. When viewed through this lens, the same principle applies to your personal financial life. You are, in…
Roth Conversions; No Free Lunch – Part 1 of 4
“A BETR analysis, however, offers a more complete way to think about the issue” – Vanguard Group There is no more enjoyable dinner in my household than a meal that involves steak. My 12-year-old and I prefer ours medium rare, while my wife and 16-year-old choose whatever comes after well done. Irrespective of our…
Volatility isn’t Chaos
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns; this is NOT investment advice and is meant to be educational in nature. “The market is always trying to price in events and earnings expectations roughly 3 to 30 months in advance, often looking past current, and backward-looking data.” – Ken Fisher Stock prices are uncertain…